Omisore Oyelola* 1
Oluwasegun A. John 1
Global population growth is rapidly approaching 10 billion, intensifying food demand beyond the capacity of current agricultural systems, particularly in developing regions. This surge, coupled with urbanization and climate change, is shrinking arable land and straining food production capacity [1]. Despite progress in food security between 2000 and 2010, Africa has seen rising hunger level recently, with worsening malnutrition and food insecurity [2,3]. Nigeria exemplifies this crisis as the world’s seventh most populous nation, projected to become the third largest by 2050 [4]. Urban sprawl consumes prime agricultural land, while climate change manifesting in erratic rainfall, extreme weather, and rising temperatures further degrades soil quality and reduces cultivable areas [5]. These factors accelerate agricultural land degradation, and threatens sustainable agricultural practices. [6,7,8]. To combat this, accurate land evaluation is critical for informed policymaking and predicting agricultural suitability [9]. Some countries rely on food imports as a short-term fix [10]. Nigeria is a notable example, heavily dependent on food imports, including sugar, which alone accounts for about 20% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [11,12]. The country spent approximately $2.41 billion on rice imports between 2012 and 2015, highlighting its vulnerability to global market fluctuations [13,14]. This reliance is economically unsustainable given rising population [15]. Instead, self-sufficiency through improved land management and utilization is essential [16]. Land is a fixed, finite, and non-renewable resource [17], making it fundamental to food security and overall human well-being [18]. Mismanagement results in degradation, environmental harm, and deeper poverty. As such, sustainable land use is essential for maintaining food production while meeting the demands of growing populations, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where urban development is increasingly competing with agricultural land [19]. Agriculture remains the backbone of many economies, vital for food security and rural livelihoods. Selecting suitable land for farming maximizes yield, reduces environmental degradation, and ensures long-term sustainability [20]. Land suitability analysis helps identify optimal areas for specific crops by evaluating factors such as soil fertility, topography, climate, and water availability [21,22]. Reliable land evaluation is indispensable for shaping effective land use policies that promote sustainable rural development. In developing nations like Nigeria, achieving food self-sufficiency depends on using such evaluations to model land suitability for various agricultural activities [23]. Agricultural land suitability refers to a land area's capacity to sustainably support a specific crop or agricultural use [17,19]. Matching crops with suitable environmental conditions boosts productivity and preserves soil health. Studies emphasize that local-level land suitability assessments are crucial for enhancing food production in Nigeria [5,14]. Although about 80% of Nigeria’s landmass is cultivable [14,24], much of it is increasingly degraded due to erosion and conversion for urban development [25]. Agricultural Land Suitability (ALS) analysis is vital for increasing productivity per unit of land, as it not only improves yields but also predict area prone to soil erosion and land degradation which is a critical consideration given that remediation of degraded soil can take hundreds of years, making sustainable soil management essential for maintaining ecosystem services, which is why farmers endeavor to identify their soil characteristics to facilitate optimum yields and prevent loss of agricultural inputs through a good understanding of soil capabilities that form the basis of all crop production activities [18,26]. Traditional land evaluation methods, including field surveys and geophysical studies, are often time-consuming and imprecise. Advances in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing now offer more cost-effective, spatially accurate alternatives. These technologies have given rise to precision agriculture by accounting for the geographic variability of farming conditions [27]. When integrated with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tools like the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), GIS allows for comprehensive spatial assessments that consider both biophysical and socioeconomic factors. Developed by [28], AHP structures complex decision-making by ranking criteria and alternatives. Applied to land evaluation, AHP combined with GIS can identify and rank suitable areas for mechanized agriculture using criteria such as soil texture, slope, rainfall, land cover, and accessibility [29]. This study employs an AHP-GIS framework to assess land suitability in Ife South Local Government Area, Osun State, Nigeria—a peri-urban zone facing urban encroachment and land use conflicts. The resulting suitability maps will guide sustainable agricultural planning and inform policy decisions to improve food security amid environmental and demographic pressures.
MATERIALS AND METHOD
STUDY AREA
This study was conducted in Ife South Local Government Area of Osun State, Nigeria. The study area is located between latitudes 7 ? 1' 00"N and 7 ? 29' 30"N and longitudes 4 ? 25' 22.5"E and 4 ? 45' 40.61"E and an altitude of 176m above sea level (Fig. 1). The area experiences rainy season starting from mid-March to late October with mean annual rainfall of about 1400mm, relative humidity is about 75.8% and 86% while the dry season runs from November to March with temperature ranging between 280C to 340C. It has an area of 730 km2 and population was about 135,338 persons [30]. The study area is characterized by two types of soil: deep clay soil formed on the lower smooth hill crests and upper slopes; and sandy (hill wash) soil on the lower slopes. The mixture of clay and sandy soil forms loamy soil and this helps water retention from seepage. The people are mostly farmers producing such food crops as yam, maize, cassava, cocoyam and cash crops which include cocoa and oil palm produce [31].
10.5281/zenodo.15468826